There has been a little bit of a to-do in light of the shocking admission by the progressive blog Daily Kos that the last year and a half of polls they have released were, you know, fraudulent . Conservative blogs predictably gloated and analysis abounds as to what went wrong and what this all means. To my mind, here is the question that I think everyone should be considering: Is it time the media stops treating these ‘horserace” poll results as actual news? I believe it is. Further, I believe our addiction to the horserace distracts from what should really matter in an election and gives legitimate research a bad name.
Maybe this story resonates with me because of how strongly I believe in solid research. Polling is a vital strategic tool when utilized correctly, and I am certainly not against polling political races. My issue is with these snapshot in time polls published in the paper, sometimes with super-sketchy sample sizes, complete with conclusive sounding statements from the pollster, which are then reported mindlessly by the media as fact.
Do these polls get it right from time to time? Sure. After all, a stopped watch is right twice a day. Is there a high level of accuracy when all of these polls are averaged and outliers are weaned out, ala Nate Silver? You betcha. (more…)
