President Barack Obama has announced that he will run for re-election in 2012.  The early announcement gives him a jump on fundraising.  With this, many estimate that he will raise a record $1 billion.

It is projected that although multiple mediums/outlets will be used during the 2012 campaign, it will consist of buying massive amounts of advertising on radio and TV.  President Obama’s team spent $427 million on media (out of the unprecedented $760 million it raised) when he won the White House in 2008.  Nearly $244.4 million of this was on broadcast advertising (57% of media budget); $133.2 million on miscellaneous media (mostly to a message and consulting firm); $26.6 million on Internet media; and $20.5 million on print.  The forecast calls for hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising spending again, boosting revenues of a range of media companies, including major television and radio.  This spending projection is on the heels of one of the most expensive mid-term elections.

The Hispanic Caucus

The 2011 Nevada Legislature not only includes a large freshman class, but also the largest number of Hispanic lawmakers in the history of the body.  Eight legislators – two senators and six assemblymen and women – are of Hispanic descent, and have formed a Hispanic Caucus.  We talked to two of these legislators about the need for a Hispanic Caucus, the role the caucus will play this session, and what issues will be at the forefront of their minds.

Senator Mo Denis:

“The biggest significance of the Hispanic Caucus is that more voices for the Latino community will be heard.  Additionally, our Latino elected officials are well qualified and diverse. They are not just Hispanic; they are quality public servants who will serve Nevada well. Expectations are high, but I’m not expecting us to change the world overnight.  I do expect great things from each and every one of them this session. While we all need to succeed individually we will all be there for each other.  Not only will more Hispanic legislators be involved this session, but there will also be more Hispanic members of the lobby corps and there will be more Hispanic advocates coming to lobby the legislators.”

Assemblywoman Lucy Flores:

 “We always say that Latino issues are American issues and that’s definitely the case.  A couple of distinct issues that Latinos face are language issues and immigration.  That being said, everything facing the state (education, jobs, etc.) are issues that matter to everyone, and the problem is that these issues disproportionately affect the Latino community.  In terms of education, Latinos represent a disproportionate number of drop outs.  Latinos represent a disproportionate number of teen pregnancies.  That’s where someone needs to step in and try to address these issues with a unique perspective.”

“We are a growing population segment, and that’s one of the roles that the caucus has to play.  We have to recruit the next generation of leaders and develop leaders in our community.  We are trying to get to proportionate representation.  If we have a state that’s thirty percent Hispanic, then arguably you should have a Legislature that has the same make-up.  I also find it shameful that we don’t have any Asian legislators.  We have a large Asian community in Las Vegas, and not one Asian member of the legislature.  It’s always a problem when you don’t have that diverse perspective, whether cultural or economic.  We’re not a homogeneous community, and when you don’t take all of these differences into account, you end up with bad policy.”

Just as a Republican tide lifted the party to a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, the  GOP wave also brought the party significant gains in governors’ offices, state legislatures and other statewide offices across the nation.

Governors’ Races

The folks at R&R’s Washington office know a little about governors’ races. Mike Pieper, our Executive Vice President of Government and Public Affairs, used to run the Republican Governors’ Association; I once ran the Democratic Governors’ Association.

But in our time working on and following governors’ races, we haven’t seen a year quite like this, with the trend breaking so decisively for one party and half the states getting new governors in the same year.

In 37 governors’ races, Republicans claimed victory in 23 states, including 11 that previously had Democratic governors. The Republican gains occurred in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan,  New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Democrats won 10 races and picked up previous Republican seats in California, Hawaii and Vermont.

An independent, former Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee, won in Rhode Island. Three races – in Connecticut, Minnesota and Illinois – remain undecided.

Nationally, Republicans now control 29 governors’ offices – the highest number for the party since the mid-1990s. Democrats hold 17 seats.

And half of the 50 states will have new governors by early 2011 – the largest turnover of governors’ offices in generations. The roster of new governors will include at least 17 Republicans, five Democrats, one independent and new governors from Connecticut and Minnesota, where incumbents did not seek re-election.

That’s a lot of change, and a lot of that change will be focused on fiscal policy.

Many of the successful Republican candidates ran on platforms calling for cutting spending and  holding the line on tax increases. At a time when many states face huge budget deficits, at least 12 of the nation’s new governors (11 Republicans and one Democrat) have ruled out increasing taxes, according to an analysis by Stateline.org.  Those new governors will soon take office in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Maine, New York, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Wisconsin.

State Legislatures

If you are a new governor with a new agenda, it sure helps to have a friendly legislature. And after Tuesday, there are not only more Republican governors, but more GOP governors with Republican legislative support.

Republicans made dramatic gains in state legislative races across the nation, picking up more than 650 seats previously held by Democrats.  Republicans now control more state legislative seats than at any time since 1928.

Republicans won control of 19 legislative chambers across the nation. The GOP picked up both legislative chambers in Alabama, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Republicans gained majorities in previously Democratic-controlled state House chambers in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Results are not final in the New York Senate, Oregon House and Senate and Washington Senate.

Some of the legislative changes were historic. In North Carolina, Republicans control both houses of the legislature for the first time since 1870. In Alabama, the GOP took charge of both chambers for the first time since Reconstruction.

In the Rust Belt states, Republicans now control governors’ offices and both legislative chambers in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Indiana.

These legislative gains by Republicans will affect not only coming debates over taxation and fiscal policy but also the once-a-decade redrawing of Congressional and legislative district maps. Of the 18 states expected to gain or lose Congressional seats, Republicans now hold legislative majorities in 10 states.

Other Statewide Offices

Here, the Republican trend continued.

Republican candidates won 16 of 30 state attorney general races, picking up previous Democratic seats in Arizona, Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio and Kansas.

On a night of losses at most levels, Democrats fared better at re-electing incumbent attorneys general. Democratic AGs were re-elected in Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico and Vermont. The Democratic candidate also is clinging to a narrow lead for the open seat in California, a race still too close to call. And Democrats held on to the AG positions in New York and Connecticut, where the current office-holder moved up to higher offices.

In other statewide contest, Republicans won 10 of 12 races for independently elected lieutenant governor, a net gain of three, and the GOP won 17 of 26 races for secretary of state, picking up six from Democrats.

These gains in the lower-ticket statewide races mean that Republicans not only have a deep roster of officials for the present, but also a deep bench of political talent for other statewide races for higher office in the future.

No. Rahm Emanuel is too smart and well prepared to venture into a race this big without having all of his ducks in a row. Not only do I think this will end up not being an issue, I think he will be the next Mayor of Chicago. 

Great question, thank you for taking the time to ask it.

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What a great question. I had to take the weekend to think about this one. I think the most effective ad this cycle has to be “Broken Promise”, from Sen. Harry Reid’s campaign. From the message to the execution, I think this is a perfectly balanced political spot. It’s emotional, hard-hitting and incredibly effective. Here’s the ad:

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Excellent question, @AxelrodD. As an aside, your name sounds remarkably like someone who works in government that I know. Must be a coincidence.

To answer your question, I don’t think it will be as major a factor as I’ve heard some say. I do think it helps Senator Reid a little when you factor in the none of the above option. It gives people who are not happy with the pace of our economic recovery a vehicle to express their anger and disappointment without voting for Sharron Angle. If people are upset, but don’t want to vote for her, it gives them another place to go.

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@rossjmiller: Which will happen first…cubs win world series or meaningful campaign finance reform is passed in NV? 

If we don’t get a Secretary of State with meaningful influence in the legislative process, the Cubs will certainly win the World Series first.

But seriously, Mr. Secretary of State, I think that the last two election cycles, both 2008 and 2010, the voters have been very angry with business as usual and what they perceive to be a government of insiders.  There will be a premium on transparency, full disclosure, and on the sense that the political playing field is level.

@rossjmiller:…what is your voter turnout prediction?

Voter turn-out will likely be 60 percent in Nevada.  What will be more interesting is who turns out.  When people are negative, they are apathetic and don’t turn out.  This year we are going to see a lot of angry voters.

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With the caveat that I’m not an economist, from what I can gather, the answer is no. Part of the challenge for the administration and for the nation’s economic leaders is convincing the media that it’s ok to cover some good news along with the bad. Nationally, we’ve had a number of months of job creation, continuing low interest rates, tax relief should and will encourage further investment, and significant parts of the country have seen increases in both tourism and retail sales. So to avoid a double dip, the great challenge is credibly disseminating that information to grow consumer confidence.

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 Thank you for your question, Bradley. When Karl Rove, the architect of the Republican base campaign efforts of the 2000s, basically calls the Republican nominee from Delaware a “nut,” you’re seeing division.  I’m not without some empathy; the Democrats went through this in the ’80s, when moderate and conservative Democrats were concerned our party was being defined by the left flank.  Clearly, there is going to be a civil war to determine what the Republican Party is in the next decade.  I don’t recall the last time a Senate leader and Senate caucus lost eight candidates in a primary election.

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So with that, we are launching #AskBillyV. The rules are simple, and there are only two. First, you must be a follower of @rrpartnersgov to ask a question. Second, you must use the hashtag #AskBillyV when asking your question. We will accept questions every Monday through the @rrpartnersgov Twitter feed, and post answers every Friday. Keep in mind, Billy knows politics nationwide, so there are no limits.

Happy tweeting!