Posts by Todd Gillins, Vice President of Research

The Changing Face of America… It’s in The Details

The Census data will be released next year and should highlight some interesting changes that are already being noted through other data sources. In 2000, Hispanics surpassed African-Americans as the largest minority (reaching 13% of the population vs. 12% for African-Americans). One forecast says there will be 30% more Hispanics than African-Americans by the end of 2010. But digging deeper into the Hispanic market uncovers some interesting stats. For example, over 60% of Hispanics are under the age of 34; and one-third are under the age of 18. At the DMA level, there are about 20 markets where the minority is the majority—in three-fourths of those DMAs it is Hispanic-dominant. Future Hispanic growth will not occur as much with immigration but rather through births—in fact, today, 60% of the growth in this demographic occurs through natural births. Multi-generation households are still common and while the younger generations will continue to be immersed in culture and heritage, Spanish language usage is changing among the youth where it has become more of a conversation tool at home with fewer being able to read and write the language.

Marketing efforts need to not only address the size of the Hispanic market, but the details found within it. On a recent blog, one Hispanic wrote about feeling “alienated” from everyone else as a consumer. He said his family likes the same TV shows, movies and music that the rest of the country likes—none of which was tailored for an Hispanic customer. There’s isn’t just one Hispanic audience. Be careful when using the “Hispanic” demographic label to describe this segment. Recognizing cultural differences among other shifts will be important as the younger generations continue to become purchasing consumers. As this and other audiences continue to change, don’t forget to look at the details.

Will consumers spend again?

As the recession caused the economy to sink, it looked as though the consumer’s ability to spend would be dampened indefinitely. With high unemployment levels, falling home values, record consumer debt and erratic consumer confidence levels, many felt as though the “Great Recession” could turn into an economic depression. Even those who didn’t feel the impact financially shared common feelings of anxiety and angst that have been prevalent over the past year.

After just a few months into 2010, it appears that some feelings of apprehension may be starting to fade. According to a recent Gallup poll, weekly spending data for March is up over last year. In fact, spending for the week ending March 14 was up 31% over the same period in 2009. Now the question is where will “new spending” levels end up—will they continue to increase or settle somewhere between 2008 and 2009 levels. Some believe the current increase in spending levels is directly related to pent-up demand from the recession, early tax refunds and/or recent Wall Street optimism.

While consumers will continue to lower their debt and purchase decisions will be weighed more carefully, new data confirms the fact that there is money to spend. As marketers actively communicate their brands they can help boost economic optimism and foster additional spending as the economy continues to improve.

Sources: Yankelovich; Gallup.com

“Rise and Shine”

Todd’s Tweet

Maybe you saw it first during the Oscars, or more recently during a morning news program. A local ad shop created the new McDonald’s spot that has been running in Vegas. It’s 60 seconds long and features a father timing his daughter running through Red Rock Canyon. It also features the song “We Are Alive” by local band Hungry Cloud. The first time I saw it, I had no idea it was an ad for McDonald’s until their familiar tag “i’m lovin’ it” was displayed at the end. After seeing it a second time, I noticed the McCafe cup, which really wasn’t a focal point of the storyline, but is shown a few times throughout the spot. Other than the cup and tag line, there aren’t any other typical McDonald’s images or associations in the commercial. Imagine that … an execution that doesn’t highlight the product.

The scenery is beautiful. At first glance, I thought it looked like a familiar place and as I kept watching, I knew it was filmed locally. I also like the song “We Are Alive” and it kept me engaged with the spot. To my knowledge, the spot has only been shown here in Vegas.

While the majority of consumers still believe there are problems with both our country and the economy, the desire to emerge from the doldrums of the past recessionary period are very much alive. In fact, this spot speaks to the desire that many of us have, to move beyond the past while maintaining a focus on those aspects of life that are most important – such as family connections and good health. Even the song, which builds dramatically at the end, reinforces the idea that the future holds great possibilities and provides a sense of hope – a mood which most of us are trying to embrace right now.

And if you can throw in a little McDonald’s along the way, then as my son would say, … “I’m lovin’ it!”

Not much change in economy from a year ago

 It’s the last quarter of the year and how does the current economic situation compare to the same time last year?

  • Consumer confidence was hovering around the 50-point mark last September – the most current reading is 48.5.
  • Last fall, the Dow experienced volatility and then increased after Election Day – this year, the Dow has continued with months of ups and downs (and some project post-Election Day growth).
  • The national unemployment rate in September 2009 was 9.5 percent – the most recent stat for September 2010 is 9.2 percent.

So, you’re thinking to yourself … “today’s economic indicators look about the same as they did last year.” And you’d be right. Wall Street, consumer confidence and unemployment stats haven’t changed dramatically. A year ago, many of us were much more optimistic about the future with the majority expecting the economy to start rebounding at least by the second half of 2010. And yet, here we are knocking on the door of 2011 and much is the same. While we’re technically past the “Great Recession,” the current recovery period is unlike any we’ve experienced before – it’s taking a lot of time. And, for the most part, patience is not one of our strengths! In fact, no matter when it was that you first started working on a computer, odds are it moved faster than the current economic recovery.

Given the slow pace of change, are we adapting to a state of “uncertainty and confusion” or are we wrestling with our ability to “stay the course” and be the ever-optimist believing that better days are yet to come. While many are hesitant about the future, others react with vocal frustration and anger to the current state of the country. As a country, we’re accustomed to being the leader and that’s being threatened to some extent by countries like Brazil and China. Deep inside we feel hope, and yet our rational side tries to maintain balance. 

Cautious optimism will continue to be the norm during this period of “emotional recovery.” We all need to feel a sense of accomplishment, individually and collectively, but until the “ups and downs” turn into a stream of improved indicators and positive news, much will remain the same.

Here’s “hoping for change” in twenty eleven!