Posts by Pam Payne, Media Supervisor

Political/Broadcast Update – Q4 2011

Projections have campaign spending estimated at $6 billion in the 2012 election cycle.  According to Ken Goldstein, president of Campaign Media Analysis Group, combined television spending across candidates, party committees, and outside groups could reach $3.2 billion.  For comparison purposes, about $2.1 billion was spent on television advertising in 2008.

Twitter has also started selling political ads in the form of its promoted tweets, accounts and trends.  In September 2011 these placements launched with a campaign for GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney.  Political ads are differentiated with purple icons and when users mouse over the ads, Federal Election Commission compliant notification revealing the ad’s backer are viewable.

As of November 18, 2011, Pandora revealed its plan to sell targeted political ads during the 2012 election period.  Targeting will be based on age, gender, and zip code.

In addition to candidate advertising, ballot or issue advertising also accounts for political spending and demands on inventory.  As of November 15, 2011, there are 56 ballot questions certified for spots on 23 statewide ballots.  Some of the ballots in key states include: California: Term Limits, Tobacco Tax, and Water Bond; Nevada: Harrah’s Sports Arena Initiative and Special Tax District Ban Measure.  As we move into 2012, we expect additional ballot propositions to be certified.

As we enter 2012, we recommend planning ahead and buying as early as possible.  Due to the demands of political advertising, CPPs and preemptions are expected to increase throughout the year.

Sources:  Ad Age, LA Times, billboard.biz, ballotpedia.org

Political/Broadcast update

As the dust has just settled on the 2010 mid-term elections and primaries are underway for 2011, the focus has already shifted to the 2012 Presidential Election.

President Barack Obama has announced that he will run for re-election in 2012.  The early announcement gives him a jump on fundraising.  With this, many estimate that he will raise a record $1 billion.

It is projected that although multiple mediums/outlets will be used during the 2012 campaign, it will consist of buying massive amounts of advertising on radio and TV.  President Obama’s team spent $427 million on media (out of the unprecedented $760 million it raised) when he won the White House in 2008.  Nearly $244.4 million of this was on broadcast advertising (57% of media budget); $133.2 million on miscellaneous media (mostly to a message and consulting firm); $26.6 million on Internet media; and $20.5 million on print.  The forecast calls for hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising spending again, boosting revenues of a range of media companies, including major television and radio.  This spending projection is on the heels of one of the most expensive mid-term elections.

With inflation trends, what goes down must come up

What Goes Up, Must Come Down….except for…. Postage Rates

  •   In 2009, the price of a first class stamp increased from $0.42 to $0.44.
  • Postage rate hikes are proposed for January 2, 2011 (pending approval) with first class stamps increasing to $0.46 – an increase of about 5% (Technically, the law prohibits a price increase that’s greater than the rate of inflation which is at 0.9%.  But under “unusual circumstances” the Postal Service can sidestep the law.)
  • The mailing of periodicals are slated to receive an 8% increase!
  • Media mail (which includes Netflix) is slated to get a 7% increase. (This would end up costing Netflix upwards of $50 million more on shipping costs in 2011.)

Ad Spending Projections: Global Overview

2010:  Global ad growth forecast raised by ZenithOptimedia:

  • 2.2% growth was projected in April
  • Global ad growth projections are now raised to 3.5% driven by upgrades to North America and Western Europe markets (Instead of the 1.5% decline for North America, the forecast is now for 1.3% growth for 2010 to $158.5 billion. This includes 1.1% growth in the U.S. and 5.4% growth in Canada)
  • All regions are now predicted to manage at least some growth this year after a stronger-than-expected first half.
  • Global ad growth should rise steadily over the next three years, with 4.5% gains next year to $467.8 billion and a 5.3% boost to $492.6 billion in 2012.

Ad Spending Projections: U.S. Marketplace

According to ZenithOptimedia, in the U.S. growth should amount to 2.7% in 2011, followed by 3% in 2012.

  • “North America is the region we have upgraded the most,” (Zenith), citing a strong upfront market, strong Super Bowl and Winter Olympics ratings and improvements in consumer spending. 
  • Also highlighted was the “very rapid growth” in Internet ads, which should boost the Internet’s share of ad expenditures from 12.7% in 2009 to 17.1% in 2012.

2010-2011 Upfront:

  • Zenith highlighted 6-10% rate increases for the 2010/2011 network upfront.
  •  Jack Myers reports that the broadcast and cable television market grew 19-20% in this year’s upfront market compared to the depressed 2009 market with $16.1 billion in expenditures – returning to 2008 levels.

2011 brings optimism that the economy is turning the corner towards recovery.

 Sources:

Adweek (5/2/10), PR.com, Ronald D. Geskey 2020: Marketing Communications LLC, genxfinance.com (7/7/10), The Hollywood Reporter (7/19/10), Jack Myers Media Business Report

Media: Broadcast Update – Spot Radio

Ad Spending Update

  • Spot radio pacing 18% higher in Q3 2010 than Q3 2009
    • July 13%, August 16%, and September jumping 28%
    • Retail – 23.2% increase; auto-39%, telecom-11.3%, consumer products-56.9%
    • 85 of the top 100 markets are pacing ahead of last year
    • An August-October political rush is expected to tighten avails further
       
  • Remainder of 2010 – Projected to Be Busy for Spot Radio
    • Back-to-School
    • Fall Premieres
    • Political
    • Holiday 

Traditional Radio Is Not Dead               

  • Radio reached 91.4% of Americans 12+ this year, up from 90.2% last year
    • 220 million 12+ listeners tuned in to radio each week, or about 93.1% of Americans 12+ (RADAR report)

Country Remains Top Music Format

  • Country radio consists of 2,300 stations across the country
  • Listeners are equally balanced between men and women, and across age groups with equal parts 25-34’s, 35-44’s, and 45-54’s
  • County is more than twice the size of the next music format, adult contemporary

News/Talk is the MOST Popular Format

  • Talk Radio edged past Country as the most popular format in December 2008
  • News/Talk captures nearly half of all Public radio listening and remains the most-listened-to public radio format in the nation, with 12 more stations adopting the format in 2009

Additional Links

http://www.mediabuyerplanner.com/entry/52213/spot-radio-pacing-18-higher-in-q3/

http://www.mediabuyerplanner.com/entry/52644/country-remains-top-music-format/

http://www.radiostreamingnews.com/2010/07/newstalk-remains-most-listened-to.html

Media Inflation Trends: A Global Perspective for 2Q 2010

As broadcast buyers for R&R Partners, we need to continually monitor changing market conditions as well as inflation trends to stay current and ensure our clients are serviced as best as possible. Below, Pam Payne discusses media inflation trends. Also, check out Leah Sommer’s related post on Market Conditions.

Global growth in ad spending for 2010 is forecasted at around just 2.2 percent, while China’s ad market growth is predicted between 12.1 percent and 16 percent. The following articles provide insights into overseas markets.

As ad spending recovers slowly around the world, China will shoot ahead in 2010 with double-digit growth.

Television Media Inflation 2010 vs. 2009 (from SlideShare.net)